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Climate change

Overview of drivers, pressures and key issues Climate change is causing a wide range of impacts on Scotland, including changes in the growing, breeding and migration seasons, shifts in species abundance and diversity and changing weather patterns with the potential for more floods and droughts. Human-induced climatic change is underway and if global emissions of greenhouse gases continue at current rates, there is an increasing risk of reaching a tipping point whereby human emissions cease to be the main driver and are overtaken by emissions resulting from disturbances to natural systems. The impacts of such ‘dangerous’ climate change are potentially devastating, with consequences for human health, biodiversity, water quality and supply, agriculture and food supply, transport, coastal erosion and flooding.

Adaptation – risk assessment and management Scotland needs to incorporate climate change considerations into all aspects of risk management and assessment, and prepare for unavoidable climate change over the next few decades as a result of recent emissions. Analysis of the past century’s data shows significant changes in rainfall patterns which, if trends continue, will increase the risk of flooding and periods of summer drought, particularly in the east of Scotland. This will put pressure on sources of water for drinking, irrigation and maintenance of ecosystems.

Limited knowledge of how climate change will impact at the regional level is a major obstacle to understanding what aspects of the environment will experience greatest change in any particular part of the country. We need to understand what aspects of the environment are most sensitive to change and extreme events and where and how we can intervene to minimise threats and maximise opportunities.

We also need to understand the implications for ecological systems and environmental services, the wider socio-economic consequences and where to focus our efforts in helping Scotland to build resilience and adapt sustainably to climate change. We need higher resolution models to improve our ability to predict the impact of climate change at a national, regional and sub-regional level; the associated social and economic costs of climate change; and the vulnerability and adaptability of living systems.

Mitigation – minimising greenhouse gas emissions The majority of greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland arise from the combustion of fossil fuels for heating, power and transport. SEPA regulates a significant proportion of the industries responsible for emissions and provides advice and guidance to other sectors. We need to improve understanding and methodologies for assessing and identifying beneficial interventions that minimise greenhouse gas emissions without causing other unacceptable environmental impacts; development of sufficiently rigorous carbon accounting methodologies and other decision-making tools; develop protocols and processes for dealing with uncertainty and risk assessment etc.

Scotland has significant sources of carbon locked in peat and other organic soils, representing a net sink for land-use. However, changing climate, inappropriate agricultural measures and other land-use activities could result in Scotland having a net loss of carbon from soils in the form of carbon dioxide and methane emissions to air and the leaching of carbon into the water environment giving rise to the formation of carcinogenic precursors. There are significant gaps in our understanding of how such soil processes work, the sensitivity to change and best practice in managing and securing soil carbon.

SEPA must explore and identify opportunities for reducing direct emissions of greenhouse gases from our own activities arising from transport emissions, estate management, waste management etc.

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Climate change research priorities

Category Priorities